Biden, Harris and Warren represent three relatively distinct, but fairly traditional, archetypes for party nominees:.
On an empirical basis, the Biden and Harris strategies have produced more winners than the Warren one, although all three approaches are viable. That puts them in the top tier. How you would rank them within the top tier is harder.
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But we should probably start with the fact that Biden is still ahead of the other two in the polls. And while you might claim that Harris and Warren have momentum, you need to be careful with that.
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Or not. Before, he had way more chips than Warren and Harris did; now, he has only slightly more than they do. Unless … the way you lost that hand reveals something about your game that could come back to bite you again in the future.
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And while Biden can still make an electability case — there are plenty of polls showing him doing better than other Democrats against President Trump — voters are at least likely to scrutinize his argument rather than take it for granted. Biden and Harris are a fairly clear No. Warren lags in endorsements, meanwhile.
For those reasons, I have Biden and Harris a half-step ahead of Warren. That said, I see the dropoff from Biden and Harris to Warren as being considerably smaller than the dropoff from Warren to the rest of the field. His favorability ratings are pretty good. He had a decent second-quarter fundraising number.
He should have a pretty good on-the-ground organization in Iowa and other early states. He potentially has a fairly high floor relative to the other candidates, and voters know what he stands for.
His fundraising totals are underwhelming as compared with the numbers from his best quarters in and And it leaves out what might be the biggest problem of all for Sanders, which is that even if he were to win Iowa — and New Hampshire — that might not slingshot him to the nomination in the way it would for the other candidates. None of those candidates are in a position to win the race right now with 15 percent of the vote, but Sanders has the least obvious path toward expanding his coalition. Buttigieg offers a different mix of positives and negatives.
Pluses: the best second-quarter fundraising numbers of any Democrat; high favorability ratings among voters who know him; stronger polling in New Hampshire and Iowa than he has nationally.
This is the fuel for your ideal muscle. Mistakes are the spell books of success. Study them hard. Learn their incantations. When muscled tear they rebuild. Harold Ramis did is Bill Murray. Steve Jobs did it Steve Woznick. Craig Silverstein did it Who? Larry Page.
Kanye West did it Jay-Z. Blaming is draining. Camplaining is draining. Explaining is draining. Took years to get there. But ONLY if the celebrated small success along the way. Make a list of the 25 things you want to do in life. Now foo the top 5. Else they will take time away from the 5 that are most important to you. And lazy.
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Send on email the next day with an idea on the next step. I have to do this. There are more questions than answers opportunities are buried in the questions. Facts can be outsourced. You win. Regret will waste time today worrying about yesterday. And anxiety will steal energy from the future. Focus on right now. Sleep rejuvenates brain cells, heals the body, reduces anxiety.
And your brain is only active hours a day. Sweet dreams. By submitting your email address, you will receive a free subscription to Altucher Confidential.